Article 50
Article 50 is about leaving the European Union. There are many economic impacts that have been forecasted by a variety of organizations including the IMF and the OECD. As well as the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance and the Treasury. The list includes a drop in confidence of investors and market volatility as well as a drop in the pound. It diminished British GDP, and a rise in unemployment. Yuri
Much of it may appear to be speculation what do the laws say about what will take place?
The simple answer is:
In the beginning, almost nothing. There will be no legal consequences when June 24 is the day Britain chooses to leave. It could take between two and three years for the main legal implications to reveal. The least-known clause in the EU Treaty – Article 50 will regulate the Brexit process throughout this period.
Article 50 looks deceptively simply. In short, it entails the EU negotiating an agreement with a former member that outlines the specific terms. In the end, it is the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, that negotiates the agreement, and the other members agree to it once it is approved by the European Parliament has given its approval.
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After it comes to the time that Article 50 agreement enters into force and becomes effective, the EU treaties cease to apply for the UK. If reaching an acceptable compromise is not possible, there’s an alternative. There is a fall back option. EU treaties will cease in effect for two years following the date the UK first announce that it intends to leave.
The procedure sounds simple. However, it’s far from that.
Expect chaos
First, Article 50 is very far from being a straightforward case in which the individual UK and its neighbours participating in bilateral talks. The talks will involve the UK on one side and the remaining member states. On the EU part, we can expect a lot of bargaining. A mess of compromises, and trade-offs that will be negotiated between states that are not EU member states’ concerns. States will not agree to a deal in one region until they can negotiate concessions in another. It is not possible to reach an agreement until all the details are agreed upon.
Regarding the UK partner for all forthcoming Article 50 negotiations, very little is about the future negotiations with Article 50. It’s not even clear who will be the head of the government that is conducting the negotiations, let alone what they’d like to achieve. David Cameron will probably have to step down should Britain decides to vote for Brexit. Boris Johnson, one likely successor, initially appeared to use the Brexit vote to secure better terms to remain within the EU. Some Brexiters such as Michael Gove would like to leave both EU as well as the market.
Brexit is a risk for Cameron. European Press Association
Some things are obvious regarding what know about Article 50 negotiations, however.
The UK is likely to be on the less able side in negotiations due to its need for access to the huge EU single market.
If Britain would like to join this market in the future, it’ll need to pay sovereignty costs and sovereignty: the more sovereignty that the UK will be willing to sacrifice to gain access, the more accessible it is for the markets (and the reverse).
Access to the single market will allow for continued access to the UK market, which includes immigrants.
As soon as that the Article 50 process starts, doubt – and the likelihood that a satisfactory agreement will not be reached will likely be a cloud over the UK as well as the EU alike, like an unclean cloud. This could affect the financial markets. It will impact the investment market. It will also affect the value of the pound.
The need to prevent others from leaving the EU could enlarge the EU’s collective position against Britain and Germany, as will the voting for France in France and Germany in 2017. However, self-interested commercial self-interest could simultaneously restrict EU members towards an approach that is more welcoming than would otherwise be the norm.
In two or more years of talks during talks, the UK remains an EU member, but it will be a sloppy one, having little influence over its European allies.
No design for Brexit
However, Article 50 is only part of the tale. It will likely serve to help take Britain out of the EU. UK away from EU. However, Article 50 does not seem to design to govern relationships between the EU with the UK.
Future relations could involve an entirely separate agreement, requiring arduous negotiations that could take several years. In addition, the UK will also need to negotiate trade deals with nations that are not part of the EU (meaning the UK will have to sign agreements with states that are not WTO members). It is an enormous undertaking in terms of duration, effort, and the skills to convince will require.
Following the UK quits after the UK leaves, the remaining member states are likely to have to discuss the revision of their internal institutional arrangements, which may be a matter of treaty changes.
Could a referendum on a change of mind in the UK be legal and permissible permitting it to pull away from Brexit? The Irish electorate has had was able to change its mind twice, after having rejected EU conventions in referendums. It’s not completely clarified, but there’s the possibility of the UK government revoking its withdrawal request. Under Article 50 should the UK reconsider its position. After recognizing how bad the deal presented to it by other EU member states for 2018 and later be. yuri
Conclusion:
Article 50 offers another interesting possibility, the possibility of the UK one day applying to join the EU. The notion that the UK leaving the EU could be able to apply again appear to be a bit far-fetched. But the drawbacks of being non-members for the UK are if experts’ opinions are an indication likely to be substantial. If these negative predictions are true. Then who knows if the everlasting exile is not going to rescind in favour of re-engagement in “ever closer union” once again?
